Mahomes vs. Allen: NFL’s Greatest Rivalry Returns in a Super Bowl-Shaking Showdown

Here we go again. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen meet for the 10th time in a rivalry that has come to define the AFC playoff gauntlet and shape Super Bowl pathways. It’s the modern echo of Brady vs. Manning—explosive throws, high-leverage moments, and the perennial question: who blinks first?

On Sunday, Sky Sports spotlights Chiefs-Bills as the league’s marquee matchup, a midseason referendum on who these teams truly are in 2025. Kansas City arrives riding a five-wins-in-six surge, having pivoted from early-season offensive turbulence to familiar, measured inevitability. Buffalo counters with a recalibrated identity powered by a punishing ground game and a quarterback who is 4-1 against Mahomes in the regular season—but 0-4 in the playoffs. It is, once again, a credibility check for two franchises habituated to January football.

The Rivalry in Balance

– Series snapshot: Allen is 5-4 head-to-head vs. Mahomes, including 4-1 in the regular season. Postseason? Mahomes owns it, 4-0, with Kansas City repeatedly gatekeeping Buffalo’s title aspirations.
– Recent heartbreak: The Chiefs clipped the Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship earlier this year thanks to Harrison Butker’s late field goal and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense sealing the verdict. That sat atop the infamous “13 seconds” divisional epic in January 2022, when Mahomes set up Butker to tie it at the buzzer before winning in overtime.
– Sustained excellence: Since Allen entered the league, only Mahomes has more wins, passing TDs, total yards, and total TDs. The Chiefs have reached seven straight AFC title games, three straight Super Bowls, and five of the last six overall—lifting the Lombardi three times in that span. They are the standard.

Who Are the 2025 Chiefs?

– The pivot: Early doubts around Kansas City’s offense gave way to the same midseason correction we’ve seen before. Andy Reid and Mahomes have tailored the attack around what’s working: rushing efficiency, controlled aggression on fourth down, and second-reaction chemistry that stresses defenses late in downs.
– Run game reality: Don’t let your eyes deceive you—this is one of the league’s most efficient rushing teams. The Chiefs rank seventh in rush EPA and ninth in rushing yards per game. Mahomes is second on the team in rushing behind Isiah Pacheco, with 46 carries for 280 yards, four TDs, and a league-leading scramble output that has resurrected drive sustainability.
– Health watch: Questions hover over Pacheco. If he’s limited or out, expect more Kareem Hunt and designed QB movement to maintain run-threat integrity.
– Defensive ballast: Spagnuolo’s unit is the other constant. They’ve become closers, tightening in the fourth quarter and problem-solving in high leverage. That’s the margin in Chiefs-Bills clashes—one situational stop, one disguised pressure, one final stand.

Who Are the 2025 Bills?

– Grounded evolution: Joe Brady’s offense is leaning into balance, and last week James Cook exploded for 216 rushing yards and two TDs. When Buffalo plays keep-away with a downhill run game, they protect their defense and keep Mahomes on the sideline—the longstanding blueprint to beat Kansas City.
– Allen’s calculus: He remains the NFL’s ultimate high-variance stressor for defenses—arm strength to punish any matchup, legs to convert third-and-forever. The key is risk management in the red zone and late-game situational football, where Kansas City has repeatedly edged Buffalo.
– Mental hurdle: Regular-season wins are real; playoff defeats are defining. This is a chance to reset the psychology of the rivalry before January, reinforcing trust in Buffalo’s new offensive identity.

What the Numbers Say

– Sustained dominance: Over the last five seasons, the Chiefs (.750) and Bills (.716) own the NFL’s top two regular-season win percentages.
– Razor-thin margins: Each of the last six Allen-Mahomes contests has been decided by fewer than 10 points. These are fine-edge games shaped by one possession, one play-call, one mistake.
– Beyond the headliner:
– The Falcons defense is allowing just 149.1 net pass yards per game—lowest in the NFL.
– Alvin Kamara is 91 receiving yards from joining the 5,000 rush/5,000 receive club.
– Jaxson Dart has a rushing TD in three straight starts for the Giants, a franchise-best run for a first-year QB since tracking began in 1950.
– The Colts have scored multiple passing and rushing TDs in four straight games, tying the longest such streak in NFL history.
– Jaxon Smith-Njigba, at 23, has 819 receiving yards through seven games in 2025; only Isaac Bruce (1995) matched that feat at 23 or younger.

Voices from the Booth

– Neil Reynolds: “This is going to get scary for the rest of the NFL. Here they come again.” Translation: the Chiefs’ blueprint is familiar, brutal, and on schedule.
– Phoebe Schecter: “It’s deja vu… every year people say the Chiefs are done, and every year they wind it up right on time.” Translation: panic in September, inevitability by November—Kansas City’s seasonal arc remains intact.

Around Sunday’s Slate

– Colts at Steelers (KO 6pm, Sky Sports NFL/Main Event): Indianapolis are 7-1 and thriving behind MVP-caliber Jonathan Taylor (850 rush yards, 12 rush TDs; 206 receiving yards, 1 TD) and a reborn Daniel Jones. The O-line’s viral “parting the Red Sea” clip vs. Tennessee captures their identity—maul, run, repeat. But stiffer tests await.
– 49ers at Giants (KO 6pm, Sky Sports+): Brock Purdy’s status hovers after a toe issue sidelined him for six games; Mac Jones has steadied San Francisco to 5-3. Christian McCaffrey is back to his dual-threat best (1,049 scrimmage yards), while the Giants turn to Tyrone Tracey with Cam Skattebo out for the year.
– Jaguars at Raiders (KO 9pm, Sky Sports+): Liam Coen says Brian Thomas Jr. won’t be traded, but the spotlight is hot after a rough London outing. Opportunity knocks. For Las Vegas, star rookie TE Brock Bowers is set to return from a knee injury, offering a seam-stretching spark.
– Saints at Rams (KO 9pm, Sky Sports+ stream): New Orleans hands the reins to rookie Tyler Shough after Spencer Rattler’s benching. The Rams return from their bye expecting Puka Nacua back, fresh off Davante Adams’ three-score showcase in London.

Chiefs-Bills: The Five Battlegrounds

1) Early scripts and pace
– Buffalo wants long, run-heavy drives to reduce Mahomes’ total possessions.
– Kansas City will probe Buffalo’s second- and third-level fits with motion and RPO looks, then uncork shot plays off tendency breakers.

2) Red-zone efficiency
– Field goals lose to Mahomes. Buffalo must finish drives; Kansas City must stay unpredictable—shovel options, tight-end choice routes, and Mahomes’ scramble drill.

3) Third-down magic vs. containment integrity
– Mahomes is lethal off-structure; Buffalo needs rush-lane discipline and late-rotating coverage to cap windows without surrendering escape routes.

4) James Cook’s volume
– When Cook gets 18+ touches, the Bills look like a top-tier offense. Design touches matter as much as raw carries—angle routes, screens, orbit motions.

5) The last defensive stand
– Spagnuolo’s units famously close. Can Buffalo flip the script with a late takeaway or four-minute offense that never hands the ball back?

Prediction: A One-Score Classic, Again

Expect another possession game decided in the final five minutes. If Pacheco plays, Kansas City’s run-pass blend and Mahomes’ late-down sorcery tilt the field. If he doesn’t, Buffalo’s balance behind Cook narrows the gap and may give Allen the ball last—critical in this rivalry.

Leaning Chiefs by a field goal if they control scramble explosives and win red-zone calls; leaning Bills by a field goal if Cook surpasses 120 scrimmage yards and Buffalo stays plus-one in turnover margin.

Either way, Round 10 doesn’t just entertain—it recalibrates the AFC power map heading toward winter. The Super Bowl credentials test starts now.