Mark Madden: Making a franchise-altering offer cou...

Mark Madden: Making a franchise-altering offer could lift Penguins from quicksand

Mark Madden: Making a franchise-altering offer could lift Penguins from quicksand

Penguins can make a statement with restricted free agents Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli

Barring the longshot of a trade, Jason Robertson is no longer available.

The high-scoring restricted free-agent winger filed for salary arbitration.

Seattle offered $120 million over eight years via sign-and-trade. But Robertson wants to stay in Dallas. He becomes an unrestricted free agent after next season.

But the market is still active for the NHL’s restricted free agents.

Philadelphia broke the mostly observed tradition of not signing RFAs by luring Anaheim center Leo Carlsson to ink an offer sheet worth $90 million over five seasons. Anaheim has yet to match or decline.

That would make Carlsson the NHL’s highest-paid player.

It would cost the Flyers four first-round picks as compensation.

Carlsson had 67 points last year. Strictly speaking, he’s not worth it. Not at this moment.

But Carlsson will be.

Carlsson is 21 and a dynamic, team-changing player.

None of the four first-round selections that Philadelphia stands to surrender figure to be as good as Carlsson. Especially if the Flyers further improve and climb the standings, diluting the value of those picks.

The Flyers are a team on the rise.

Signing Carlsson is a statement of intent. We’re not messing around.

That statement stands even if Anaheim keeps Carlsson. (Anaheim should and probably will. The Ducks should never have let it come to this. Bad management.)

Bravo, Flyers. (It pains me to say that.)

The Pittsburgh Penguins can still make a statement like that.

Chicago center Connor Bedard is a restricted free agent.

Columbus center Adam Fantilli is a restricted free agent.

Bedard is 20, Fantilli 21. They were selected first and third, respectively, in the 2023 NHL Draft.

Neither can file for arbitration like Robertson. They don’t have the required service time.

Bedard was thought to be the next big thing, a definite franchise player.

He’s disappointed a bit and has been injured some but had 75 points in 69 games last season. Remarkable skill set and hockey IQ. Bedard is still on the rise. (Not huge at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds).

Fantilli had 59 points in 82 games last season. He’s a great skater, a freight train at 6-2, 205. He’s also still in the ascension.

Bedard figures to get $10 million-$12 million per on his next deal. Fantilli should get close to the same. (But either or both could get more as inflated by the Carlsson offer sheet.)

If either signs with another team, an average annual value of $11.7 million or higher gives back four first-round picks, as with Carlsson. Below $11.7 million but above $9.3 million requires two first-round picks, one second and one third.

It’s big business.

The Penguins have new owners. They’d probably like to win ASAP.

Signing Bedard or Fantilli would be taking risk but also offering a potential shortcut.

Either (especially Bedard) is the type of franchise talent you don’t get to draft in the mushy middle.

You settle for Ben Kindel. At best.

You can build around Bedard or Fantilli, especially Bedard. (Albeit without your next four first-round picks.)

The Penguins would have to overpay. So what? They have the salary cap space. The cap is rising.

If I’m president of hockey ops/GM Kyle Dubas, I sign Bedard or Fantilli.

But there’s one big obstacle.

Bedard or Fantilli have to want to come to Pittsburgh.

They probably don’t.

The Penguins haven’t won a playoff series since 2018.

It’s an old team with an old culture.

Sidney Crosby is 38, not 28.

The system doesn’t have many prospects projected as top-six forwards or top-four defensemen.

Pittsburgh isn’t currently a destination.

Bedard or Fantilli would have to be greedy, not ambitious.

Another team might offer the chance to be both.

As this space mentioned before, the mushy middle has become quicksand.

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