It was supposed to be the ultimate power move. WNBA players, riding the high of a record-breaking season and a $2.2 billion media rights deal, were ready to flip the table. They demanded 30% of gross revenue. They threatened a strike. And they pointed to their ace in the hole: “Unrivaled,” the new, player-owned 3-on-3 league founded by superstars Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier. It was meant to be their safety net, their leverage, and their proof that they didn’t need the WNBA machine to survive.
But in the span of a single week, the strategy didn’t just fail; it imploded.
The Ratings Freefall
To understand the magnitude of the disaster, you have to look at the numbers—and they are brutal. Last year, Unrivaled’s opening night drew a respectable 312,000 viewers on TNT and TruTV. It was a promising start. But this year? The opening games averaged just 175,000.
Then, the floor fell out. Games airing exclusively on TruTV plummeted to a catastrophic 32,000 viewers. To put that in perspective, a mid-tier YouTuber often gets more eyes on a video in an hour than this professional league got on national television.
“That is not a small dip,” one analyst noted. “This is a complete nose dive that nobody in women’s basketball wanted to see.”
The league’s CEO, Alex Bazzell, tried to spin the narrative, claiming they are playing the “long game” and citing a 48% increase in revenue and sold-out merchandise. But in the world of professional sports, TV ratings are the only currency that matters. A 9-figure TV deal with TNT reportedly has an opt-out clause after three years. If viewership stays in the basement, the network walks, and the league dies.
The Caitlin Clark Reality Check
Why did the audience vanish? The answer is the “elephant in the room” that players have been reluctant to acknowledge: The stars weren’t there.
This season of Unrivaled is missing the four biggest drivers of the sport’s cultural explosion: Caitlin Clark, A’ja Wilson, Angel Reese, and Sabrina Ionescu. Without them, the product—despite featuring incredible talent—couldn’t hold the casual fan’s interest.
The data is undeniable. When Caitlin Clark plays, millions watch. When she doesn’t, the numbers revert to the niche audience of years past. The players’ union built their entire negotiating strategy on the idea that they were the product. Unrivaled’s collapse suggests that for the mass market, the stars are the product. And without the “Caitlin Clark Effect,” the leverage evaporated instantly.
The Negotiation Nightmare
This collapse couldn’t have happened at a worse time. The deadline for the WNBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) passed six days ago without a deal. Negotiations are frozen. Free agency is halted. The expansion drafts for Toronto and Portland are delayed.
The WNBA owners are now sitting across the table with a winning hand. They know the players’ “Plan B” is failing. They know the audience numbers without Clark are weak. And they have already put a historic offer on the table: a massive salary bump that would take the maximum player salary from $249,000 to over $1.3 million—a 500% raise.
The players, however, are holding out for a 30% share of gross revenue. It’s a bold demand, essentially asking to be paid before the league pays its bills. But with Unrivaled posting 32,000 viewers, the threat of “we’ll go play elsewhere” rings hollow. One player compared the stalemate to a couple unable to decide between Applebee’s and Chipotle. But the reality is far starker: if your only other restaurant just burned down, you eat what’s on the menu.
The Shadow League: Project B
Just when you think the story can’t get crazier, enter “Project B.” While Unrivaled flails, a new, shadowy competitor is rising. Backed by Saudi money, this proposed league is planning a Formula 1-style global circuit with tournaments in Tokyo and beyond.
The bombshell? They are offering $2 million annual salaries and equity in the league. And they’ve already signed 10 WNBA players, including—ironically—Nneka Ogwumike, the President of the WNBA Players Union.
The conflict of interest is staggering. The very person leading the negotiations with the WNBA has signed a deal with a potential rival funded by foreign wealth. Project B plans to run during the WNBA off-season, but with the WNBA looking to expand its schedule to 50 games, a collision course is inevitable. Players may soon be forced to choose between the stable, historic WNBA and the risky, high-paying Saudi tour.
The Verdict
The WNBA players are standing at a precipice. They deserve credit for building the league to this point, and they absolutely deserve a share of the new wealth. But business is cold. Business is about leverage. And right now, the players have lost theirs.
Unrivaled proved that you can’t just manufacture a league without the cultural icons that drive viewership. The WNBA owners know this. The TV networks know this. And deep down, the players likely know it too.
The smart move? Take the historic raise. Take the $1.3 million salaries. Secure the bag and build for the future. The stubborn move? Strike, hold out for a revenue share that the business model might not support, and risk alienating the millions of new fans who just started tuning in.
The “Worst Decision in Sports History” might not be the WNBA’s refusal to pay 30%. It might be the players believing they could win a war without their biggest weapon.
