JJ Redick Goes Nuclear: The “Expected Score” Rant That Exposed the Lakers’ Fatal Flaw and the End of the Honeymoon

Los Angeles, CA – The polite “coach speak” has left the building. In its place, a frustrated JJ Redick stood before the media at the Crypto.com Arena and delivered a post-game autopsy so blunt, so mathematically damning, that it felt less like a press conference and more like a courtroom indictment of his own roster.

Following a demoralizing 124-112 loss to the Sacramento Kings, the Los Angeles Lakers’ head coach didn’t hide behind the usual buzzwords of “effort,” “grit,” or “execution.” Instead, he pulled back the curtain on a team that is statistically broken, revealing a divide between what the Lakers should be doing and what they are actually capable of. The result was a tension-filled room and a clear signal that the experiment involving LeBron James, Luka Dončić, and a cast of non-shooters is hitting a critical wall.

The “Nuclear” Option: Math vs. Reality

It is rare for a head coach to cite “expected score” metrics in a post-game rant, but Redick went there. He told reporters that, based on the quality of shots created, the Lakers should have won the game by 24 points. Instead, they lost by 12.

“The expected score we won by 24,” Redick stated, highlighting a staggering 36-point variance between the game plan’s design and the players’ execution.

“We literally can’t make a shot,” Redick said, his voice stripped of optimism. “It’s not complicated… We’re 28th before tonight and opponent three-point percentage will be 29th or 30th after tonight”.

This wasn’t an emotional outburst; it was a cold, analytical exposure of the team’s fatal flaw. The Lakers created 50 potential assists—meaning the ball moved, the reads were correct, and the shots were wide open. They converted only 21 of them. When a coach tells the world that the system is working perfectly but the players simply cannot put the ball in the basket, he is drawing a line in the sand. He is saying: I did my job. They didn’t do theirs.

The LeBron and Luka Spacing Nightmare

Luka Doncic 'Awestruck' By Lakers Teammate LeBron James

The arrival of Luka Dončić in Los Angeles was supposed to create an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. On paper, pairing two of the greatest playmakers in history seemed like a cheat code. In reality, as Redick pointed out, it has created a math problem that no amount of basketball IQ can solve.

The Lakers are shooting a league-worst 33.8% from three-point range. LeBron James is shooting just 30.4% from deep, and Luka isn’t faring much better at 32% this season. When your two primary ball-handlers are below league average from the outside, defenses simply pack the paint.

“That kills spacing whether people want to admit it or not,” the analysis reveals. “Defenses don’t fear from outside… that’s not a coaching flaw… that’s roster math that doesn’t add up”.

The Kings exposed this ruthlessly. They clogged the lanes, dared the Lakers’ role players to beat them, and watched as brick after brick turned into long rebounds and transition points. Redick noted that 40 of Sacramento’s 61 first-half points came in early offense or transition. The Lakers aren’t just missing shots; their missed shots are fueling the opponent’s offense, and an aging roster simply cannot run back fast enough to stop the bleeding.

“I Guess We Got To Keep Shooting”

Perhaps the most chilling moment of the press conference was Redick’s resignation. When asked what the solution was, he didn’t offer a tactical tweak or a lineup change.

“This has been the theme… so just got to keep shooting I guess,” he said.

That is the sound of a coach who has checked every box, pulled every lever, and realized the machine is simply broken. It is a “resignation hit,” a realization that there is no emergency brake to pull. You cannot scheme a non-shooter into a sniper mid-season. You cannot “coach” the ball into the hoop.

The Shadow of the “Fall Guy”

The narrative arc here is becoming dangerously familiar to Lakers fans. We have seen this movie before with Frank Vogel and Darvin Ham. A roster is constructed with glaring holes (in this case, shooting and perimeter defense), the team underperforms, and the coach eventually takes the fall.

But JJ Redick was supposed to be different. He was LeBron’s “handpicked” guy, the podcast partner, the basketball soulmate. Yet, as he stood at the podium torching the roster’s performance, LeBron sat nearby, watching the man he endorsed publicly critique the team he helped build.

Is Redick documenting his own exit strategy? By putting these numbers on the record—the “expected win by 24″—he is effectively insulating his reputation. He is proving that his system generates open looks, and the failure lies in the personnel. It is a bold survival tactic, but one that risks alienating the locker room.

“How long before LeBron decides Redick crossed an invisible line?” the commentary asks. When the coach starts saying the quiet part out loud—that the roster is flawed—the clock usually starts ticking.

The Austin Reaves Factor and the Trade Market

JJ Redick praised Doc Rivers at his Lakers press conference months after  ripping him

The timing of this meltdown is suspicious. It comes on the heels of rumors involving Rich Paul—LeBron’s agent—floating a trade of Austin Reaves for Jaren Jackson Jr. The Lakers know they need a change. They need defense, and they need shooting.

Austin Reaves, currently out since Christmas, is missed, but his 36% shooting on 7.4 attempts isn’t enough to single-handedly fix a team shooting 22% in a game. The problems are structural. The Lakers are trying to win in 2026 with a roster construction that feels two decades old—heavy on isolation, light on spacing.

Conclusion: A Breaking Point

The Lakers are 24-19, drifting in the wrong direction in a loaded Western Conference. The “Expected Score” moral victory means nothing in the standings. JJ Redick has thrown the gauntlet down to the front office: Get me shooters, or accept this mediocrity.

As the team prepares for a back-to-back against Atlanta, the pressure is immense. If the front office doesn’t make a move to fix the shooting woes, Redick’s “nuclear” press conference might be looked back upon as the beginning of the end for this iteration of the Lakers. The math doesn’t lie, and right now, the numbers say the Lakers are finished unless something drastic changes.

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