Chris Simms explains why Patrick Mahomes isn’t his No. 1 QB in 2025

Every offseason, NFL fans and analysts await the latest quarterback rankings with a mix of anticipation and dread. No matter how carefully the lists are crafted, they inevitably spark debate, outrage, and, sometimes, genuine reflection. This year, Chris Simms—former NFL quarterback and respected analyst—set the football world abuzz with his 2025 quarterback rankings, placing Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs’ golden-armed superstar, at number four.

On the set of Pro Football Talk, Simms sat opposite Mike Florio, ready to defend his choices. The bottom half of his top ten was already controversial: Jayden Daniels, after just one NFL season, slotted in at number five, ahead of veterans like Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia’s franchise leader, landed at number ten—a ranking sure to ignite passions in the City of Brotherly Love.

Simms anticipated the backlash. “I know, I know,” he said, almost sheepishly, as Florio teased him about the reaction in Philadelphia. But Simms was steadfast. He admired Hurts’ leadership and fit in the Eagles’ offense, but, he argued, “He did not play great football last year.” Simms pointed to the boos Hurts received from his own fans, the public frustration of his top receiver, and the offense’s struggles as evidence that Hurts, while a great leader and a perfect fit for the team, wasn’t quite on the level of the elite.

But it was the top four that truly set tongues wagging. Lamar Jackson at number one. Josh Allen at two. Joe Burrow at three. And then, at four—Patrick Mahomes.

Even Simms’ own son was incredulous. “You can’t put Mahomes at four, he’ll never talk to you again!” he protested, reflecting the disbelief of countless Chiefs fans. After all, Mahomes has led his team to three straight Super Bowls, won multiple MVPs, and redefined what’s possible at the position.

Simms, however, was ready to peel back the curtain on his thought process. “You know how much I love Patrick Mahomes,” he assured viewers. “He’s special. He’s mastered winning.” But, he cautioned, the NFL conversation too often conflates team success with individual performance. “We’ve put winning a little much on the quarterback at times,” he explained.

For Simms, the last two years told a different story. “His quarterback play has not been as good as Lamar Jackson’s, the last two years, probably in totality.” He marveled at Lamar’s evolution: “It’s unbelievable. When you turn it on, you just go, ‘Oh my gosh.’ The throws, the decisions, he takes care of the ball—when nobody’s open, he still runs for 40 yards. He buys time for 30 seconds and then throws a completion for 20 yards.” Jackson, Simms argued, had reached a new level of mastery, even if he still needed to win more in the biggest moments.

But what about Mahomes? Simms was quick to point out that Mahomes’ greatness was not in question. “He’s arguably the clutchest quarterback I’ve ever seen.” Yet, he argued, Mahomes’ situation afforded him luxuries other quarterbacks didn’t have. “Because of his team, he’s afforded to play a certain style sometimes that I would tell you Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen can’t.”

Simms painted a scenario familiar to Chiefs fans: Mahomes, facing third down, doesn’t like what he sees. Instead of forcing a risky throw, he tosses the ball away, confident that his top-tier defense will keep the game close. “He’ll keep us in the game,” Simms said, channeling Mahomes’ mindset. “That’s not necessarily perfect quarterback play. Now, they win the game, and he knows how to play to win the game, and that’s where this exercise is so hard.”

Simms’ argument wasn’t about diminishing Mahomes’ achievements. Rather, it was an attempt to separate the quarterback’s individual play from the team’s collective success. “If you broke it down game by game and watched film with me,” Simms insisted, “you’d go, ‘Yeah, I think Chris, you’re right. Burrow, Allen, and Lamar Jackson had a better year than Patrick Mahomes.’”

The numbers, he suggested, only told part of the story. Mahomes’ stats had dipped by his own lofty standards, and while he’d guided the Chiefs to a third straight Super Bowl, the journey had been rockier than in years past. The Chiefs’ offense sputtered at times, plagued by injuries, a revolving door at left tackle, and a lack of explosive weapons at receiver. Mahomes was forced into quick throws, often under duress, and his trademark magic was sometimes offset by impatience or forced plays.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense rose to the occasion. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit became one of the league’s best, allowing Mahomes to play with a margin for error. Simms argued that this changed the calculus for Mahomes: he could take more risks, knowing his defense would bail him out, or play it safe, trusting that field position and the defense would keep Kansas City in the game.

It was a subtle, nuanced critique—one that acknowledged Mahomes’ brilliance while suggesting that, last season, other quarterbacks had played the position at a higher level, even if their teams didn’t achieve the same heights. Simms wasn’t blind to Mahomes’ clutch gene or his status as the best “winner” at the position. But in evaluating the pure quarterback play, divorced from team context, he believed that Jackson, Allen, and Burrow had the edge.

Of course, such rankings are always subjective, colored by personal preference, scheme fit, supporting cast, and the ever-elusive “eye test.” Simms admitted as much, noting that the exercise was “so hard” and that he had “so much respect” for all the quarterbacks on his list.

As the segment wound down, Florio pressed Simms on other rankings—Jared Goff, for example, just outside the top ten, praised for his pocket presence and aggressive decision-making but dinged for a lack of mobility. It was a reminder that every quarterback, even the great ones, is a product of both their own talents and the circumstances around them.

The debate over Mahomes’ place in the quarterback hierarchy will rage on, fueled by every pass, every win, and every highlight-reel play. But for Chris Simms, the 2025 rankings were about more than just rings or playoff runs—they were an attempt to capture the essence of quarterback play, in all its complexity and context.

And as a new season dawns, one thing is certain: Patrick Mahomes, whether ranked first or fourth, will continue to be the standard by which all others are measured. The story of the NFL’s quarterback evolution is still being written, and Mahomes, for all his doubters and defenders, remains at its very heart.