After Recent Stats Slump, Is Patrick Mahomes Still the NFL’s Top QB?

For years, the debate over who is the NFL’s best quarterback has often ended with a single name: Patrick Mahomes. Take a quick look around the Internet, and you’ll find a strong consensus—Mahomes is the gold standard, the No. 1 quarterback in football. But is that reputation still justified after a noticeable statistical downturn? The answer, as always, is more complicated than it seems.

Mahomes’ Legacy: A Case for QB1

Let’s be clear: Mahomes’ résumé is staggering. He has played in three consecutive Super Bowls, boasts a career winning percentage of 79.5% (second all-time), and has delivered in countless clutch moments. His 2022 season was legendary—over 5,200 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and a league MVP trophy to show for it. Even his 2018 campaign, with 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, set the league ablaze.

But evaluating the “best” quarterback is about more than legacy. It’s about who is playing at the highest level right now. And by that measure, the conversation gets much more nuanced.

A Statistical Regression

Mahomes himself acknowledges he hasn’t played up to his own standards recently. “There’s plays on the football field that I didn’t make last year that I’ve made in previous years,” he told USA Today. “At the end of the day, I’m going to do whatever it takes to win… But I think if I play better, that’s going to make it better for the team.”

The numbers back him up. After his spectacular 2022 season, Mahomes’ production dropped off. In 2023 and 2024, his passing yards, touchdowns, and advanced metrics all declined. For example:

– Total EPA (Expected Points Added):
– 2022: 213.2
– 2024: 78

– Success Percentage:
– 2022: 53.3%
– 2024: 49.9%

– Completion Percentage Over Expected:
– 2022: -0.2%
– 2024: -1.8%

– Sack Percentage:
– 2022: 3.5%
– 2024: 6.2%

In 2024, other quarterbacks surpassed Mahomes in several key advanced metrics. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Jayden Daniels all posted higher EPA totals. Mahomes was notably absent from the MVP conversation, which was dominated by Jackson and Allen.

Even in the world of video games, Mahomes’ standing has slipped. After six straight years in the “99 Club” in Madden, he dropped to a 95 rating in Madden 26, while Allen and Jackson retained their 99s and Burrow rose to 97.

The Counterpoint: Winning and Clutch Play

Despite the statistical dip, Mahomes’ supporters point to the one metric that has always mattered most: winning. The Chiefs went 15-2 in the regular season and reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year. They won 10 one-possession games, often relying on Mahomes’ ability to deliver in the clutch.

Critics argue that the Chiefs wouldn’t have needed so many close wins if Mahomes had played at his 2022 level. Supporters counter that Mahomes did exactly what was needed, especially in critical moments. According to advanced stats, Mahomes ranked third in the NFL in total EPA on third and fourth downs, and also third in those situations during the fourth quarter. That’s the definition of clutch.

As Tom Brady said on “The Joel Klatt Show,” “In the biggest moments, you can depend on him the most. That’s clear.”

The Changing Quarterback Landscape

The league’s quarterback hierarchy is more competitive than ever. If you want the most dynamic dual-threat, look to Lamar Jackson. The strongest arm? Josh Allen. The best pure passer? Joe Burrow. Jalen Hurts, too, made a statement by beating Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, reminding everyone that even Mahomes is mortal.

Head-to-head playoff wins matter, and Mahomes has a strong record against his peers—Burrow is the only one with a postseason win over him. But the gap is closing.

Context for Optimism—and Uncertainty

There are reasons to believe Mahomes could bounce back. The Chiefs have a promising new left tackle in rookie Josh Simmons, and Xavier Worthy emerged as a potential breakout receiver late last season. However, there are concerns at the pass-catcher positions: Travis Kelce is aging, Hollywood Brown is injury-prone, Rashee Rice is coming off an injury and likely suspension, and rookie Jalen Royals is unproven.

Even Tom Brady had seasons when his play dipped, and Mahomes appears to be experiencing a similar phase. The Chiefs remain contenders, but Mahomes’ individual dominance is no longer a given.

The Bottom Line: Still QB1?

So, is Patrick Mahomes still the best quarterback in the NFL? The answer depends on what you value most. If you prize championships, clutch play, and trustworthiness, Mahomes remains the safe bet. If you’re focused on recent performance and advanced stats, there are stronger cases for Jackson, Allen, or even Hurts.

The 2025 season may be the most pivotal yet for Mahomes’ legacy. If Allen, Jackson, or Burrow win a Super Bowl, the QB1 crown could finally change hands. For now, Mahomes is still in the conversation—but for the first time in years, his grip on the top spot feels uncertain.