Is Caitlin Clark Now the Favorite To Win the WNBA MVP With the Addition of a New Coach?

Caitlin Clark drops first WNBA game: Scores 20 points with 10 turnovers in Indiana Fever’s 92-71 loss to Connecticut Sun

Clark makes one of the most-hyped debuts in WNBA history.

Why Caitlin Clark isn’t a good bet to win WNBA MVP as a rookie

(Photo: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)

Caitlin Clark is no stranger to absurd numbers. She scored 3,951 career points at Iowa, helped draw a record 18.7 million viewers for the NCAA championship game, and signed a $28 million endorsement contract with Nike.

But on the eve of the WNBA season, another figure stands out as particularly crazy. As of late last week, Clark is only +1000 to win the league’s MVP award at BetMGM, the third-shortest odds, trailing only the Las Vegas Aces’ A’ja Wilson (+120) and New York Liberty’s Breanna Stewart (+550). As great as Clark is and as much potential as she has to become a WNBA star and continue to transform the sport, betting on a rookie to win the MVP — even one who is a generational talent — is beyond foolish.

Let’s start with the simplest truth: Rookies rarely win MVP awards in major sports. In the WNBA, only one player has pulled off that rare feat: Candace Parker in 2008. Like Clark, Parker was a college star who entered the league with massive hype. But though Clark certainly has the potential to make an immediate impact, that’s mostly limited to offense. Parker not only finished fifth in the league in scoring in 2008 (18.5 points per game), she also led the WNBA in rebounding (9.5 per game), ranked second in blocks (2.3 per game), and added 3.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. She influenced the game in every way imaginable and transformed the Los Angeles Sparks from a 10-24 team in 2007 to a 20-14 record in her rookie campaign.

That last part is the next crucial factor working against Clark. WNBA MVPs almost always come from the very best teams.

Elena Delle Donne was the only MVP over the past 10 seasons to play for a team that didn’t finish with one of the two best records, and her 2015 Chicago Sky team was third in the standings. Clark is joining Indiana, which went 13-27 last season. Even if she engineers significant improvement, it’s almost unfathomable for the Fever to come close to challenging the two super-teams at the top of the league, the Aces and Liberty. Seattle and Connecticut also look to be significantly better than Indiana. The Fever simply won’t win enough to back Clark’s MVP case.

Fever GM sees ‘championship’ potential

(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Indiana Fever GM Lin Dunn knows the Caitlin Clark effect is coming. In fact, it’s already started. More than 6,000 fans turned out for the Fever’s WNBA Draft party at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Monday, more fans than 17 of the team’s 20 home games last season, mainly due to the anticipation of the Iowa star being selected first by the Fever.

This wasn’t a normal turnout, especially for someone who was hundreds of miles away in New York, but Clark isn’t a normal player. She became a rock star at Iowa, and that show will soon continue alongside 2023 No. 1 pick Aliyah Boston on an even bigger stage. A stage that now includes championship expectations, according to Dunn.

Dunn, in her third season as the Fever GM, was the Seattle Storm coach and GM when it drafted Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird with back-to-back No. 1 picks in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Although Dunn resigned from the Storm after the 2002 season, Jackson and Bird eventually led the franchise to two championships in 2004 and 2010. Dunn believes Boston and Clark could have similar title potential as a duo.

“It doesn’t happen very often, and so when it does happen and you can look back historically, it usually means that it leads to championships,” Dunn said. “I think this is the beginning of us getting back on track to win another championship here. When we were able to put Bird and Jackson together, a great point guard and a great post player, we were able to take off in Seattle, and I think that can happen here when you put Clark with Boston.”