What the Chiefs must do to beat the Bills in the Divisional Round
What must the Kansas City Chiefs do in order to beat the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round?
The Kansas City Chiefs are off to the divisional round and will square off against the Buffalo Bills. Although the opponent is very familiar, the setting will not be. The Chiefs are set to play their first true road game in the Patrick Mahomes era on Sunday evening in Orchard Park, New York.
This will be their toughest matchup of the season as the current Kansas City squad is mostly unfamiliar with road postseason games. Travis Kelce is the only player on the current roster who was drafted by the Chiefs and has appeared in a road postseason game for the team. Despite the inexperience in road playoff games, that shouldn’t be a significant factor in this game. What are the most important parts of this game for Kansas City?
If the Chiefs are going to go into Buffalo and advance to their sixth straight AFC Championship Game, here are the six most important things they’ll need to do:
1. No mistakes
Even including their trouble at wide receiver, arguably the Chiefs’ biggest issue this season has been giveaways on offense. In the regular season, the team was tied for the 7th most giveaways and turnovers can be considered the main culprit in several of their losses.
It’s going to also be true of every (potential) game moving forward, but the margin for error is going to be zero. The Bills and Chiefs are pretty evenly matched, so any turnover or costly penalty may very well swing the game.
In their 18 games this year, Kansas City has had at least one giveaway in 16 of them. That can’t happen in this game, especially with an offense as dangerous as Buffalo’s.
On the flip side, Buffalo was tied with Kansas City regarding giveaways. Also, given that KC’s defense is elite, it’s realistic to expect the Bills to turn the ball over at least once. Whichever team wins the turnover battle may very well win the game.
In addition to just giveaways and takeaways, other little mistakes, such as drops and penalties, can lead to big problems. In a matchup that might require the Chiefs to score a lot of points, drive killers such as penalties and drops. The problem is that the Chiefs led the NFL in drops, so that could be a lot to ask for, unfortunately.
If Kansas City can play a mistake-free game, there’s no doubt that they’ll be playing for the AFC Championship next weekend.
2. Exploit the middle of Buffalo’s defense
One of the under-the-radar storylines for this game is how beaten up the Buffalo defense is. Cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano, and defensive tackle have all been out for a while and will miss the remainder of the season. In addition, linebacker Baylon Spector and Christian Benford were injured against the Steelers and are out for this game. Linebacker Terrel Bernard was also injured against Pittsburgh and has been listed as questionable for this matchup. Safety Taylor Rapp didn’t play last week and will also miss this game.
There’s a realistic scenario in which the Bills are down three of their top four linebackers from the beginning of the season, which would be a huge problem for them.
It’s not a coincidence that once the Bills lost multiple key players at linebacker, the Steelers were able to start moving the ball on the Buffalo defense. Where the Bills were most vulnerable was the middle. According to Pro Football Focus ($), Mason Rudolph went 13-of-16 for 132, 2 touchdowns, and a 140.6 passer rating on pass attempts between the numbers and past the line of scrimmage. That’s where the Chiefs need to attack.
The Chiefs have two weapons that are amazing at stressing out the middle of defenses: Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Neither guy is known for winning outside of the number and both feast on targets that are between the numbers and between 0 and 19 yards past the line of scrimmage. If Kansas City is going to produce offensively in this game, they will need both Kelce and Rice to have strong performances in the passing game, exposing a now significant weakness on Buffalo.
3. Win on early on downs on both sides of the ball
One can argue that winning on first down is important in every game, but it’s especially true in this one. The Chiefs have to stay away from 2nd/3rd and long on offense and avoid 2nd/3rd and short on defense.
The reason this is important is because it will limit Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo’s ability to be creative. If due to a failed early down play or a penalty, the Chiefs are in a 2nd or 3rd long situation, that will limit what Andy Reid is able to call and will make it easier for Sean McDermott to dial up a drive-killing call against a not-so-potent Kansas City offense.
On defense, allowing the Bills to run well on 1st down and set up 2nd-and-short situations will hinder how much Steve Spagnuolo can blitz and call aggressive coverages. It would also increase the likelihood of offensive coordinator Joe Brady calling a shot play, which is always dangerous with Josh Allen at quarterback. Also, losing on early downs will make it less likely that Buffalo will punt in key areas and opt to go for it on 4th down instead.
Winning on early downs on both sides will involve running the ball well with Isiah Pacheco and stopping Buffalo’s running attack with James Cook. Both teams have struggled to stop the run, but the Bills saw the return of DaQuan Jones last Monday, by far their best interior run defender, and the Chiefs have proven that they can stop dangerous rushing offenses in past playoff games, such as the Titans and 49ers four years ago.
If the Chiefs can force the Bills into many 2nd or 3rd-and-long situations as well as avoid it themselves, the odds of winning this matchup will improve significantly. The strength of the offense, other than Patrick Mahomes, is the interior of the offensive line (Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith) and Andy Reid would be wise to lean on the unit for much of this game.
4. A receiver not named Kelce or Rice needs to step up
If this game is as close as we all expect it to be, the Chiefs are going to need all hands on deck, especially on offense. Coming into the postseason, many people expected Kansas City to ride their best players, other than Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco. While that is still true, the offense will need someone else to make 1 or 2 plays throughout the game.
Whether it be Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Noah Gray, or Richie James, the Chiefs are going to need someone else in the passing game to step up. It doesn’t need to be for 100 yards or multiple touchdowns, but just a couple of plays throughout the game that pay even the slightest dividends could be the difference between going home or back to the AFC Championship Game.
It could be Mecole Hardman or MVS actually hauling in a deep ball from Patrick Mahomes for once (which they’ve struggled with), Richie James converting a third and long off a screen pass, or Justin Watson or Noah Gray making a key play late in the game. It can be anything but this offense needs a third guy to contribute in a significant way if they’re going to emerge victorious.
5. Contain Josh Allen as a runner
Josh Allen is known for a lot of things, but his ability as a runner is near the top. Although his overall rushing stats are down from previous years, the threat is still very much real. Just last Monday, he ran for a 52-yard touchdown on third and long that changed the game for Buffalo.
The Bills likely won’t utilize Allen’s running ability on early downs (other than scrambles), so Steve Spagnuolo needs to be ready for those third-down scrambles that can change the game’s course. I fully expect Allen to be spied on critical plays with either Willie Gay or Drue Tranquill.
The Chiefs allowed the Dolphins to convert just four times on 16 third and fourth down opportunities in the Wild Card Round. If Kansas City wants to have similar success this week, they’ll need to contain Josh Allen the runner. There’s little reason to think that the KC secondary will be a problem, but stopping perhaps the most terrifying scrambler in today’s NFL could be.
6. Patrick Mahomes needs to be Patrick Mahomes
This last point will be short and sweet. Patrick Mahomes needs to be Playoff Pat in this matchup. If he has a down game, the odds of Kansas City winning worsen dramatically.
People have questioned the Chiefs’ ability to win road playoff games, which is absurd considering that the team has won two Super Bowls over the past five years and Mahomes has actually performed better away from Arrowhead throughout his career. They might not beat Buffalo this weekend, but Mahomes being scared of opposing stadiums would be one of the reasons why.
Fortunately, Mahomes takes everything personally and given the amount of disrespect that’s been directed towards him and the Chiefs this week, I fully expect him to have one of his better games of the year. Patrick Lavon Mahomes II will not be an issue, but other areas, like run defense and receivers dropping the ball, could very well be.
The opposing quarterback in this game (Josh Allen) is one of two in the NFL who are even in the same zip code as Mahomes (along with Joe Burrow). If Mahomes is the better quarterback in this game, the Chiefs will move onto the AFC Championship. If not, this will game likely get hairy for them.
