The Kansas City Chiefs are getting lucky this season: Fact or fiction.

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Luck is the unquantifiable factor that exists in all of our lives.

It’s the $20 bill that blows by your foot at the gas station or when the coffee shop runs out of medium cups so you get a large for the same price.

None of us can explain luck, but we all know it when we see it.

Luck is no stranger to sports either. And this year’s narrative in the NFL is that the Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs are lucky—and not really that good.

Since the very first game of the season, the Chiefs have been marked as a team that is just getting by on devil magic and luck.

From Isaiah Likely’s toe to coin flips to blocked kicks, the Chiefs have lived by making plays at the final moments of a game.

Their +56 point differential is the lowest of any 12-1 team in NFL history.

The next closest team is the 1976 Raiders with a +89 point differential.

The Chiefs have won an NFL record 15 one-score games dating back to last year.

There’s no arguing that the Chiefs have been playing games closer than you’d like to see.

Does that make them lucky or a team that knows how to perform in the clutch? Let’s look at some of these lucky scenarios to separate the facts from the fiction.

Isaiah Likely’s toe.

The Chiefs led the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 with 10:25 remaining in the fourth quarter.

The Ravens then went on a five-plus-minute drive including a 4th down conversion that ended in a Justin Tucker field goal which cut the lead to 27-20.

The Ravens got the ball back with 1:50 left to drive the full length of the field and earn shots at the end zone.

Lamar Jackson overthrew a contested catch to Likely, the team’s young tight end.

On the next down, Jackson misses a wide-open Zay Flowers, and on the final infamous down, Jackson hits Likely.

However, after the replay, he’s deemed out of bounds.

Lamar Jackson had 3 chances to tie the game and couldn’t do it.

Keep in mind that people like to say, “The Ravens were a toe away from winning that game.

” False. They were a toe away from being down one point.

Then they were an extra point away from tying the game (Tucker has not been trustworthy this year and has missed two extra points) or a 2-point attempt away from winning the game.

So the Chiefs did not stop a game-winning play.

The margin was close but also the two-time MVP had three opportunities from 1st-and-goal and didn’t get it done.

Some might call that good defense.

Yes, the toe was an incredible storyline but you have to give credit to the defense for making the play

Luck rating: a little lucky.

Bengals’ Defensive Pass Interference.

You’ve likely come to expect nothing less than a close game between these two teams.

Back in Week 2, the Chiefs got the ball back from Cincinnati with 2:35 left in the 4th quarter down 25-23.

They moved the ball to their 41-yard line and then Patrick Mahomes completed a deep pass to wide receiver Rashee Rice that was called back due to an illegal hands to the face call on left tackle Wanya Morris.

That left the Chiefs with a 4th-and-16 to convert to win the game.

Daijahn Anthony made contact with Rice before his next catch and the Chiefs got a 29-yard penalty which set up a game-winning 51-yard field goal.

The Bengals’ defense turned out to be one of the worst in the NFL this year and having a 7th-round rookie defensive back covering the Chiefs top receiver in that instance isn’t luck that it turned out poorly.

With that said, trusting officials is never reliable in the NFL.

You don’t want to leave the game up to them ever.

The Chiefs were lucky it was called despite it being obvious DPI.

However, they still needed Harrison Butker to make a 51-yard kick in the clutch to win the game.

Luck rating: Lucky.

Falcons Non-Call.

Down 5 points with 4:13 left in the 4th quarter, Kirk Cousins targets Kyle Pitts in the back of the end zone and Bryan Cook breaks up the pass.

The broadcast crew points out what was obvious DPI on Cook that went uncalled.

Keep in mind this would not have given the Falcons the lead but a fresh set of downs at the 1-yard line.

If the Falcons score there they take the 24-22 lead with around 2-3 minutes remaining.

When have we ever seen Patrick Mahomes lead a team down for a game-winning field goal or touchdown? (Keep in mind this is with Rashee Rice still healthy.)

Was it bad luck the refs didn’t call clear DPI on Cook? Yes.

As stated above you never want to leave a game in the hands of a ref.

Also, this game was far from over.

This play did not decide the outcome of this game.

Luck rating: Not lucky.

Tampa Coin Toss.

The Chiefs headed to overtime with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a hard fight Monday Night Football game in Week 9.

The Chiefs won the coin toss and went on to score the game-winning touchdown.

The Buccaneers never have a chance to score.

Winning the coin toss is the definition of luck—a 50/50 proposition that fell in the Chiefs’ favor.

However, Baker Mayfield’s reaction to losing the coin toss had everything to do with the man standing across from him.

Patrick Mahomes is inevitable in game-winning or comeback drives.

The Buccaneers tried to get a defensive stop but instead the Chiefs offense never even faced a third down as they marched right down the field and scored—with the help of zero penalties as well.

Losing to coin toss is bad luck, losing the game is bad defense.

Luck rating: Not Lucky.

Broncos Block.

With 5:57 remaining in the 4th quarter, the Chiefs kick the ball off to Bo Nix and the Broncos offense.

They march down a shortened field due to a bad kickoff and convert a 3rd and 6th to all but ice the game for the win.

They finish by kneeling out the ball to kick a 35-yard field goal.

Leo Chenal and a wave of other Chiefs players block the kick snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Broncos are one of the best defenses in the NFL and are a playoff team.

The fact that the Chiefs were in a tight game with this team isn’t some debacle.

The Chiefs ultimately made a football play to win this game.

All 3 of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl wins have involved key special teams plays.

Though it’s not as fun or exciting, special teams are part of winning football culture.

As it turns out, the Broncos’ field goal blocking was an issue dating back weeks that the Chiefs scouted and took advantage of.

A good football play and scouting isn’t luck.

Luck rating: Not Lucky.

Raiders’ Botched Snap.

A game in which the Chiefs allowed Aidan O’Connell to look like Brett Favre.

Near the end, the Chiefs were faced with stopping the Raiders offense from driving from their own 8-yard line.

The Raiders promptly marched down the field and appeared to be in perfect field goal range.

A confused Raiders offense is out of sorts and their rookie center snaps the ball which is fumbled.

There’s no debating if there was a false start or illegal shift as there were two receivers moving forward during the snap.

The fumble was a live ball that bounced the Chiefs way.

There’s no sugar coating this one.

The Chiefs were definitely lucky to win this game and to recover the fumble.

The only thing you can say is some teams know how to win and others know how to lose.

The Raiders are very good at being bad.

Luck rating: Very Lucky

Doink for the Division.

 

The Chiefs got the ball back with 4:30 left in the 4th quarter and methodically drove down the field.

The Chiefs get into short field goal range with no penalty yardage and with the Chargers using all three timeouts.

At the end of the game, Patrick Mahomes knelt to eat up some clock before Matthew Wright was called on to kick the game-winning field goal.

The Chiefs’ third kicker on the year knocked the ball off the left upright for the win.

The Chiefs have now made 31-yard field goals seem lucky.

Ask yourself this would people have called the Broncos lucky for making their 35-yard field goal a few week prior.

Even if it doinked off the upright? Probably not cause they would be the team slaying the Kansas City dragon. Instead, because the Chiefs are the team to beat, it gets labeled as luck.

Missing a 31-yard field goal in the modern NFL is bad luck. Having your 3rd string kicker is bad luck.

Justin Herbert missing a wide-open Josh Palmer is the most lucky thing to happen to the Chiefs in this game and that was in the 1st half.

Luck rating: a little lucky

Conclusion.

Are the Chiefs lucky? Yes. Are they way more lucky than any other NFL team? No.

They, like many other teams, have faced their fair share of fortune and misfortune.

The biggest difference is they are almost always in a position to take advantage of it.

Luck doesn’t matter if you’re down multiple scores, and while several of these games were certainly losable.

the Chiefs are never out of a game or down by huge margins.

Take the Bills’ loss to the Rams this week, a game in which they were down 17 points in the 4th quarter.

They weren’t in a position to take advantage of some petty defensive pass interferences that went their way in the fourth quarter.

As the cliche goes: Luck is when opportunity meets preparation.

The Chiefs have a team and a quarterback that is prepared for anything and everything.

If you give them the smallest opportunity they will take advantage of it.

Not many teams can say that.