Why the Cubs made the Edward Cabrera trade

After months of speculation and a winter spent searching for starting pitching, the Chicago Cubs finally made their move: acquiring electric but injury-prone right-hander Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins in exchange for top outfield prospect Owen Casey and two lottery ticket prospects, Christian Hernandez and Edgardo Deleó. For Cubs fans, the deal marks a decisive step in an offseason that’s been defined by patience, payroll maneuvering, and the hope that the front office will go “all-in” for 2026.

But is Cabrera, with his tantalizing stuff and worrisome medical history, the answer for a rotation that desperately needs upside? And what does the deal say about how the Cubs view their window, their willingness to spend, and their appetite for risk? We break down the trade from every angle—Cabrera’s fit, Casey’s upside, the financial implications, and what must come next for Chicago to truly contend.

Section 1: The Trade—Cubs Get Their Guy, Marlins Bet on Power

To the Cubs:

Edward Cabrera (RHP, age 26): High-strikeout, high-velocity starter with a unique pitch mix and a lengthy injury history. Under team control, affordable salary.

To the Marlins:

Owen Casey (OF, age 23): Left-handed slugger, top 100 prospect, ready for everyday big-league action, extreme power, some swing-and-miss risk.
Christian Hernandez (SS, age 20): Former $3M IFA signee, toolsy but plateaued in the Cubs system, potential bat-first infielder.
Edgardo Deleó (IF, age 19): Arizona Complex League standout, elite bat speed, high effort swing, contact concerns.

Section 2: Why the Cubs Targeted Edward Cabrera

The Need for “Stuff” and Strikeouts

Cubs President Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins have been clear: this rotation needs more swing-and-miss stuff. With Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga anchoring the staff, Chicago lacked a true power arm who could generate strikeouts in October. Cabrera, with a fastball that sits 97 mph (both four-seamer and sinker), a devastating changeup that he throws more than any other pitch, and two plus breaking balls, fits the bill.

Why Now?

Cabrera’s name has been linked to the Cubs since last offseason. Chicago nearly swung a deal with Miami before, but the Marlins’ asking price was higher—likely including big-league pieces like Matt Shaw or even more of the Cubs’ top prospects. Cabrera’s injury history (13 IL stints between majors and minors) and recent UCL sprain dropped his price just enough for the Cubs to pounce.

The Cubs’ Calculus

The Cubs believe Cabrera can be a mid-rotation anchor—maybe more if he stays healthy. His unique pitch mix (a changeup at 94 mph that bears in on righties, thrown more often than his fastball) gives him a chance to be a difference-maker. Manager Craig Counsell is known for embracing pitchers with unconventional arsenals, and the Cubs’ pitching development group will have plenty of ideas for how to maximize Cabrera’s stuff.

Section 3: The Risk—Can Cabrera Stay on the Field?

Injury History

Cabrera has never thrown 150 innings in a season, nor made 30 starts in a year. His resume is littered with elbow, shoulder, and other arm issues. For a Cubs team that needs reliability as much as upside, this is a major concern.

Why Take the Chance?

Starting pitching is expensive—top free agents like Dylan Cease command $200M+. The Cubs, unwilling to spend at that level, instead gambled on a controllable, high-upside arm whose injuries have kept his price reasonable. If Cabrera stays healthy, the Cubs have a frontline starter at a fraction of the cost. If not, they risk losing a valuable prospect for little return.

Section 4: Owen Casey—The Prospect the Cubs Gave Up

Profile

Power: 30+ homer upside, elite exit velocities, left-handed bat.
2024 AAA Stats: .937 OPS, 53% hard-hit rate, 28% K rate, 81% in-zone contact.
Weaknesses: Struggles against lefties, swing-and-miss risk, average defense.

Why Miami Wanted Him

The Marlins need impact bats and everyday players. Casey, blocked in Chicago’s crowded outfield, now gets a chance to play every day in Miami. His power and contact gains make him a potential cornerstone, and the Marlins have shown recent success helping high-K hitters adjust to the majors.

Cubs’ Outfield Depth

Chicago’s system is loaded with outfielders: Kevin Alcántara, Ethan Conrad, Kane Keley, Cade Snell, Josiah Harshorn, and more. The Cubs could afford to trade Casey, knowing they have other options coming up.

Section 5: The Lottery Tickets—Christian Hernandez and Edgardo Deleó

Christian Hernandez

Background: $3M IFA signing, once compared to A-Rod and Machado.
Development: Plateaued in the Cubs system, average bat, flashes of power and speed but never fully popped.
Projection: Bat-first infielder, likely a utility or second-division regular if he puts it together.

Edgardo Deleó

Profile: High-effort swing, elite bat speed, Arizona Complex League numbers.
Concern: Contact issues make it hard to project him past Double-A.
Upside: If he hits, he’s a data darling; if not, organizational depth.

Section 6: The Cubs’ Rotation—How Does Cabrera Fit?

Current Depth Chart

Justin Steele (LHP): All-Star, reliable innings.
Shota Imanaga (LHP): New addition, high floor.
Jameson Taillon (RHP): Solid veteran.
Matthew Boyd (LHP): Depth piece.
Edward Cabrera (RHP): High-upside wild card.
Colin Rea (RHP): Swingman, depth.
Cade Horton (RHP): Top prospect, could debut soon.
Jackson Wiggins (RHP): Mystery man, future upside.

The Big Picture

Cabrera gives the Cubs a true power arm, something they’ve lacked for years. If he stays healthy, he and Horton could form a dynamic duo atop the rotation for years to come. But with several starters hitting free agency after 2025, the Cubs need Cabrera to deliver now.

Section 7: The Payroll Puzzle—Why the Cubs Traded Instead of Signed

Financial Constraints

The Cubs have been reluctant to spend at the top of the free agent market, preferring trades for controllable talent. Cabrera, at ~$3.8M, keeps the team well under the luxury tax and leaves room for another big bat.

The Next Move

Chicago must add a hitter. With Casey gone and the rotation improved, the Cubs can target one of the big four free agent bats: Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Tucker, or Matt Chapman. Payroll flexibility means the Cubs can finish the offseason strong.

Jed Hoyer’s Philosophy

Hoyer has preached “no half measures,” but recent offseasons have felt incomplete. This trade is a step toward building a true contender, but only if the Cubs follow through and sign a bat.

Section 8: The Marlins’ Perspective—Why the Deal Makes Sense for Miami

Betting on Power

Miami has struggled to develop hitters, but recent success with high-K, high-power bats gives hope that Casey can thrive. Christian Hernandez and Deleó are upside plays, and the Marlins need all the young talent they can get.

Pitching Depth

With Cabrera gone, the Marlins will rely on Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett (returning from Tommy John), and prospects like Robbie Snelling and Thomas White. Health remains a concern, but the Marlins are betting on stability and upside from their arms.

Section 9: The Risk Factor—Who Wins the Deal?

Cubs’ Side

Ceiling: Cabrera anchors the rotation, Cubs add a big bat, and Chicago contends for the NL Central.
Floor: Cabrera gets hurt, Casey becomes a star in Miami, and the Cubs regret the deal.

Marlins’ Side

Ceiling: Casey hits 30 homers, Hernandez develops, and Miami finally finds a cornerstone bat.
Floor: Casey’s whiffs overwhelm his power, and Cabrera thrives in Chicago.

The X-Factors

Cabrera’s health
Casey’s contact rate and ability to hit lefties
Cubs’ willingness to spend on a hitter

Section 10: Historical Context—Cubs’ Prospect Strategy

Outfield Depth

The Cubs’ system is deepest in outfielders. Trading Casey makes sense given the logjam and the need for pitching. Chicago’s willingness to move prospects for controllable arms reflects a shift in strategy.

IFA Investments

Big-money IFA signings have rarely paid off for Chicago, but trading prospects like Hernandez and Deleó for immediate help is one way to recoup value.

Section 11: What Must Come Next—The Bat

The Missing Piece

If the Cubs stop here, the offseason will feel incomplete. Chicago must add a hitter to replace Casey’s power and solidify the lineup. Bregman, Bellinger, Chapman, and Tucker all fit, but the Cubs need to stop waiting and act.

The Path Forward

Payroll is flexible, the rotation is improved, and the bullpen is solid. Now is the time to go all-in, finish off the offseason, and enter 2026 as NL Central favorites.

Section 12: Fan Perspectives—High Stakes, High Expectations

Cubs Fans

Many will miss Casey’s upside, but understand the need for pitching. The hope is that Cabrera’s stuff will play and that the front office will follow through with a big bat.

Marlins Fans

Excitement is high for Casey, who finally gets everyday at-bats. Hernandez and Deleó are fun lottery tickets, and the team’s new approach to hitting development is promising.

Conclusion: Cubs Take a Calculated Risk—Now They Must Finish the Job

The Edward Cabrera trade is a classic case of risk vs. reward. The Cubs have bet on upside, control, and payroll flexibility, but the move only pays off if Cabrera stays healthy and Chicago adds the bat they need. For the Marlins, it’s a chance to finally develop a power hitter and take a shot on two intriguing prospects.

As the offseason continues, the pressure is on Jed Hoyer and the Cubs’ front office to “finish it off”—sign the bat, complete the roster, and give Chicago fans a team worthy of Wrigley Field’s nightly sellouts. Anything less will feel like another half measure.