The “Crazy Ivan” of Economics: Why “Strategic Uncertainty” is a Tax on Main Street

The recent exchange between Representative Mark Pocan and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant exposed the fundamental deception at the heart of the current administration’s trade policy. When Bessant, a Yale-educated global investor, described the “Crazy Ivan” strategy of deliberate unpredictability, he wasn’t talking about a sophisticated negotiating tool. He was describing an economic fog of war that provides cover for price hikes while squeezing the life out of American small businesses.

The hypocrisy is stark. We are told these tariffs are “negotiating leverage” intended to punish foreign exporters like China, Mexico, and Canada. Yet, the administrative reality is that foreign governments do not write checks to the U.S. Treasury.¹ American importers pay the bill. When a shipment hits a U.S. port, the American business—not the foreign supplier—must pay the tariff to U.S. Customs and Border Protection before they can even touch their goods.²

The Return of the 1930s

To understand the scale of this disruption, we have to look at the numbers the administration tries to avoid. According to data from the Yale Budget Lab, the average effective tariff rate skyrocketed in 2025.³

Metric
2024 Average
2025 Peak (April-August)
2025 Year-End (Nov/Dec)

Effective Tariff Rate
~2.5%
~28.0%
~16.8%

Monthly Tariff Revenue
< $10 Billion
> $30 Billion
~$34.3 Billion

This 16.8% rate is the highest the U.S. has seen since 1935, a period defined by the catastrophic Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that deepened the Great Depression.⁴ By resurrecting these protectionist relics, the administration has imposed what economists call the most significant tax hike on Americans since 1993.⁵

Small Business: The Collateral Damage

For Secretary Bessant, “Crazy Ivan” is a strategy for a cocktail party in Beverly Hills. For the owner of an auto body repair shop or a specialty printer on Main Street, it is a death knell. Small businesses operate on razor-thin margins and do not have the global portfolios to “hedge” against uncertainty.⁶

The Squeeze: Survey data from October 2025 shows that 60% of small businesses affected by tariffs have been forced to either raise prices or absorb the costs, which directly cuts into payroll and investment.⁷

The Cost: The Center for American Progress estimates that the average small-business importer paid roughly $42,600 in total tariffs in September 2025 alone.⁸ If this persists, a typical mom-and-pop shop faces over $500,000 in additional taxes per year.⁹

The Chaos Cover: As Pocan noted, tariffs provide an excuse for broader price increases. When the cost of a walnut plaque rises alongside a steel tariff, it’s because companies use the “tariff chaos” as cover to gouge consumers, knowing that “strategic uncertainty” makes it impossible for the average person to tell who is actually responsible for the higher price tag.

Who Actually Pays?

When Secretary Bessant calls the question of who pays tariffs a “complicated mix,” he is engaging in deliberate obfuscation. It is not complicated.

The burden follows a clear path: the U.S. importer pays the tax at the border, and because businesses cannot survive on losses, they pass that cost down the supply chain.¹⁰ The Yale Budget Lab finds that the 2025 tariff regime represents an average loss of $1,700 to $2,400 in purchasing power for every American household.¹¹ The “Crazy Ivan” strategy is great for “really rich people” who can play the market’s volatility. But for everyone else, it’s just a “Trump Tariff Tax” that drains the bank accounts of Main Street to fund a global game of chicken. Transparency isn’t just about releasing data; it’s about being honest about who is actually footing the bill.